Open Predictions
Will Trump's China tariffs still be in place by July 2026?
Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports. Markets expect either negotiation or escalation. Will the tariffs remain by mid-year?
Will Brent crude oil stay above US$100/barrel through May 2026?
Oil has surged past $105 on Iran tensions and trade war supply fears. Can prices sustain above $100?
Will the RBA cut interest rates by August 2026?
The RBA has signalled 'encouraging progress' on inflation. Markets are pricing a 72% chance of a cut by August. Will they deliver?
Will CBA share price close above $160 by 30 June 2026?
CBA has reported record profits and trades at $148.50. Can it push through $160 in the next few months despite market volatility?
Will Australian wheat exports to China increase by 10%+ this year?
China's retaliatory tariffs on US agriculture could redirect demand to Australia. Will Aussie wheat exports benefit meaningfully?
Will Bitcoin exceed US$100,000 by June 2026?
BTC has surged past $95,000 on safe-haven demand and ETF inflows. Will it break six figures?
Will the Woodside-Santos merger be approved by regulators?
A $52B mega-merger in the energy sector. ACCC and FIRB must approve. Analysts give it 60% odds.
Will the AUD/USD recover above 0.66 by end of May 2026?
The Aussie dollar has plunged to 0.63 on trade war fears. Can it bounce back above 0.66?
Will the ASX 200 recover above 8,200 by end of April 2026?
The index has fallen to 7,960 in its worst week since 2020. Will it bounce back quickly?
Will Australian house prices rise in Q2 2026 despite rate hold?
The government just announced a $12B housing package. Will prices still rise this quarter amid affordability pressures?
Will the US Fed cut rates before the RBA does?
Powell has warned of stagflation risks. Both the Fed and RBA are on hold. Which central bank moves first?
Will BHP's bid for Anglo American succeed?
BHP has made a $49B bid — the largest mining deal ever. Anglo may demand more. Will it close?
CBA long straddle — $150 strike, June 2026 expiry
Buy 1 call and 1 put at the $150 strike. Profits if CBA makes a large move in either direction before June expiry. Spot is $148.50 — a near-ATM volatility bet.
BHP bull call spread — $42/$46, September 2026
Buy the $42 call, sell the $46 call. Capped upside but cheaper than a naked call. Profits if BHP rises moderately into the Anglo deal close.
Bitcoin strangle — $85k/$105k strikes, June 2026
Buy a $105k call and an $85k put. Pure volatility play — profits on a big move in either direction. BTC is in a coiled range around $95k.
ASX 200 protective put — 7,800 strike, May 2026
Long a 7,800 put on the ASX 200 (XJO). Think of it as portfolio insurance — caps downside if the index breaks its recent lows.